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LBJ's Ghost? George Bush wanted a "Gulf of Tonkin" in Iraq

Share / Recommend - Comment - Print - Saturday, Feb 11 2006, 1:00PM

British author Philippe Sands has a fascinating and important new book out, Lawless World: America and the Making and Breaking of Global Rules -- From FDR's Atlantic Charter to George W. Bush's Illegal War.

Interestingly, the book jumped from 15,052 on Amazon's sales rank to 3,471 today.

In Lawless World, Sands recounts a discussion between President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair in which Bush proposed painting a plane with the identifying marks of the United Nations and prompting, hoping, that Saddam Hussein would shoot it down.

Speculation is rife that current British Ambassador David Manning wrote the memo recounting this discussion between Blair and Bush.

Here is a reminder about various other Bush-Blair pre-war discussions from Manning's predecessor, former British Ambassador to the U.S. Christopher Meyer.

After the Downing Street Memo -- written by my old friend Matthew Rycroft (now British Ambassador to Serbia); the Al Jazeera bombing memo, and a number of other memos -- it is clear as day that the Brits are far better note-takers than the Americans.

The Los Angeles Times' John Daniszewski writes this about Sands' book:

It was the end of January 2003. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell was five days away from giving a critical speech at the U.N. Security Council, laying out the case that Iraq was hiding weapons of mass destruction and posed a danger to world peace.

But huddled with aides at the White House, President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair were not sure there was enough evidence to convince the Security Council. Without the council's explicit authorization, their plans for an invasion to depose Saddam Hussein could be difficult to defend under international law.

Bush proposed an alternative: paint a U.S. spy plane in United Nations colors and see if that didn't tempt Hussein's forces to shoot at it. In any case, he said, the war was "penciled in" for March 10 and the United States would go ahead with or without a second U.N. resolution.

Blair replied that he was "solidly with" the president.

That is the gist of an account of the Jan. 31, 2003, meeting contained in the new edition of "Lawless World," a book by British author Philippe Sands. He has not identified the writer of the memorandum on which the account is based, but British media reports say it was one of the aides in attendance: Sir David Manning, then security advisor to Blair and now the British ambassador in Washington.

A spokesman for Blair on Friday refused to address the allegations but repeated Downing Street's insistence that there was no decision to commit British forces to war in Iraq until after it was authorized by Parliament on March 18, two days before the invasion was launched.

A spokesman for Manning said the ambassador would not comment.

Here is a thought experiment, and I don't have the answer.

If Bush had, in fact, painted an American military plane with UN markings and had provocatively flown the plane into Iraqi combat fire and it had been shot down, with lives potentially lost -- with a written record making clear the pre-meditation -- would Bush have violated any laws?

I'd be interested in any thoughtful responses.

-- Steve Clemons

(Ed. Note: thanks to LF for the book review link.)

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Reader Comments (17) - post a comment

Posted by nepeta, Feb 11 2006, 2:32PM - Link

I can only assume that the painted 'spy' plane would have been placed on autopilot and the original pilot would have bailed out in safe territory. Another thought, is it possible to fly these things remotely? I don't think 'even' Bush would have contemplated the possible death or capture of an American pilot to get his war. (Well, maybe he would, but I'm sure the resultant problems would quickly be pointed out by advisors with brains.) Also, once the Iraqis discovered that the plane was indeed an American spy plane in disguise Bush would be in very hot water regardless of whether the Brit memo had been made public.

PS: Steve, I don't know if it's my computer or your site, but there seems to be a loading problem with the pictures.

Posted by Kathy, Feb 11 2006, 4:32PM - Link

I doubt that flying the plane as a deliberate provocation in and of itself would have violated any law, but that doesn't seem like the point to me. It would have been a lie intended to justify a violation of law: the international law that says you can only attack another country in direct self-defense or when authorized by the UN Security Council. The disguised spy plane would not be a lie; it would be fraudulent "evidence" of the need to invade, just as using the discredited Curveball intelligence or Niger-Iraq uranium connection constituted the use of fraudulent evidence to justify an illegal act -- not violations of the law in and of themselves.

Posted by Ohiodem1, Feb 11 2006, 5:06PM - Link

If a pilot is flying an airplane of another nation in a spying mission, and he is wearing the uniform of his own country, if caught, he is a spy, and subject to espionage charges. I believe the Geneva Conventions (not that Bush gives a hang about the Geneva Conventions) would not protect a pilot under this circumstance.

Would it not be within the UN's right to disavow a U2 overflight? Would it not be within the UN's right to identify the USA as the perpetrator of such a harebrained scheme.

If this incident can be proven to be true, it is just one more justification or proof that the Bush admin lied us into war. If this is proven to be true, it is just another log on the fire that says the Bush admin cooked the intelligence to illegally justify war, and it certainly enhances the circumstantial case that if they were willing to cook this scheme up, they were willing to make other justifications up, like fake uranium stories, saying that Saddam had WMD, even though the Weapons Inspectors on the ground, the Weapons Inspectors who were thrown out of Iraq, not by Saddam, but by George, said that the WMD was not there.

The inspectors would daily say No WMD's found today. Bush/Cheney would say they were moving them around like chess pieces. Or they would say that they had intelligence that they were in certain locations, and when the Inspectors asked for them, the Bush/Cheney warmaking cabal refused, saying that they would give away their intelligence sources if they disclosed this to the UN inspectors.

Who can believe anything this admin says? I know I can't.

Posted by David, Feb 11 2006, 11:31PM - Link

Steve:

I looked around a little to see what I could find about this. I am not a lawyer, so please take this with a grain of salt.

I believe there are two issues in play here. The first involves the legality of the overflight itself. The second involves the marking of a U.S. military plane in a deceptive manner.

The legality of overflights by coalition forces in the no-fly zones was always a matter of some contention. In fact, it was suggested at least once prior to the beginning of the military campaign in 2003 that an incident in the no-fly zones could trigger a full-scale war (intentionally or unintentionally). For an example, see the article Persian Gulf or Tonkin Gulf? by Robert Dreyfuss in the American Prospect.

If one accepts the legality of the no-fly zones - as did three U.S. administrations - then the problem becomes: What laws govern the conduct of coalition forces engaged in the no-fly zone? The United Nations never spelled out any rules. My suggestion would be this: as a minimum, U.S. and coalition forces should obey "the laws of war". In the area of "law of air warfare" international law seems to be thin. The Hague Rules of Air Warfare were established in 1922-1923, but never ratified. It is claimed that many of these rules are part of what is called "customary law" -evidently this means law that is not codified but widely accepted anyway. Article XIX of the Hague Rules is: "The use of false external marks is forbidden."

A treaty that has been ratified by many nations is the Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, and relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I). Here is Article 37, "Prohibition of Perfidy", part 1:

It is prohibited to kill, injure or capture an adversary by resort to perfidy. Acts inviting the confidence of an adversary to lead him to believe that he is entitled to, or is obliged to accord, protection under the rules of international law applicable in armed conflict, with intent to betray that confidence, shall constitute perfidy. The following acts are examples of perfidy: (a) the feigning of an intent to negotiate under a flag of truce or of a surrender; (b) the feigning of an incapacitation by wounds or sickness; (c) the feigning of civilian, non-combatant status; and (d) the feigning of protected status by the use of signs, emblems or uniforms of the United Nations or of neutral or other States not Parties to the conflict.

Parts (c) and (d) seem directly relevant. However, the United States has not ratified Protocol I. Also, neither Iraq nor Afghanistan have ratified Protocol I. Ironically, this very same clause is one sometimes used to target terrorists - who feign civilian status. In my opinion it is one that the U.S. clearly accepts, even if we haven't ratified the Protocol.

Here is President Reagan's message to the Senate about Protocol I. I believe this is part of the current controversy about whether terrorists should be protected by the Geneva Conventions. The controversy involves a different part of Protocol I (not Article 37).

Posted by Dirk, Feb 12 2006, 2:38AM - Link

I always thought that the UN only had black helicopters, with no other markings.

Posted by Nell, Feb 12 2006, 12:35PM - Link

While appreciating Dirk's leetle joke, I had a related question as I read this story two days ago: What planes have ever had 'UN markings'? Are there such things as 'UN planes'?

I thought all major military resources on UN missions were simply loaners from the militaries of member states. In what circumstances have planes ever been repainted with UN markings?

From seeing them in El Salvador, I'm aware that peacekeeping missions have their own (UN-owned?) pickups and SUVs. But that's very different from a tank or plane.

Posted by dolores heeb, Feb 12 2006, 7:38PM - Link

i read recently that it would have been illegal to fly under un colors. pretty sure it was a writer i respect, but i cant remember reference. hopefully an international lawyer will weigh in.

Posted by Tyrone Slothrop, Feb 12 2006, 9:17PM - Link


I took the point of the proposal (in the memo reported by Sands and apparently seen by few others) was that the U-2 would be not only in UN colors, but also nominally assisting the weapons inspectors -- otherwise, why use a reconnaissance plane instead of something that would be harder to shoot down and more durable? In this connection, Iraq would not only be shooting at a flight in its airspace, but shooting at weapons inspectors. Am I the only person reading all of this into the memo?

Posted by Krojac, Feb 12 2006, 9:39PM - Link

To answer the question above aircraft on loan to the UN for missions are usually painted white with 'UN' painted black on the side.

As I recall, UNSCOM, the UN commision set up to search out and destroy WMD in Iraq after the first Gulf War, had an arrangement for ordering up U-2 flights but these planes were never 'chopped' (the military term meaning put under someone else's control) to the UN. All UNSCOM received were DOD-selected images taken during the flights.

In other words, the whole Bush idea was pretty silly since everyone even remotely familiar with this type of operation knows that U-2s always remain under USA national control. If the record of the Bush/Blair conversation is true and I have no reason to doubt it is not, it only further underlines how little the White House understood the import of what it was contemplating.

Posted by Azael, Feb 12 2006, 10:06PM - Link

Did Iraq even have missles capable of shooting down a U2? They fly mighty darn high.

From what I understand, most of Iraq's anti-aircraft missile batteries were relatively ancient SA-3's and their missiles were only capable of missile engagement altitudes of 25-60,000 feet. No SA-1's or SA-2's.

Thus, it would seem this scheme would only work if they flew the U2 at low altitudes where a U2 wouldn't even be useful.

Something's rather odd about all this.

Posted by Drew, Feb 13 2006, 1:15AM - Link

This plot sounds a bit reminiscent of Operation Northwoods in 1962, plotted by the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Nothing would surprise me.

http://drewlbucket.blogspot.com

Posted by Paul in LA, Feb 13 2006, 5:33AM - Link

This is a Northwoods copycat action. The evil fact is that there is no real difference to these conspirators between using a drone and an actual pilot (or between fictitious students flying over Cuba, or real students).

Missing from your analysis is also the obvious, that the US would itself shoot down the plane, and blame it on Hussein.

As for laws, the obvious one is Conspiracy to Defraud the United States.

Since we know that Bush and Blair were in fact bombing Iraq for a full year before the invasion date, so this was just an additional ILLEGAL incitement of war to those illegal acts.

Posted by Paul in LA, Feb 13 2006, 5:39AM - Link

"the whole Bush idea was pretty silly since everyone even remotely familiar with this type of operation knows that U-2s always remain under USA national control." -- Posted by Krojac

It only seems silly, since Bushoviks don't care whether their story is plausible or not -- they just use their hammer to bang that peg into the square hole, and then have their complicit press fawn on the lie.

There are hundreds such examples of that complicity by now. They spied on the UN, and nothing was said about it. Custer Battles has been a scandal on a giant scale for two years, and yet it only now reaches the public, on 60 MInutes. The warcrimes are ignored. So it doesn't matter if the ploy was transparent.

Blair would have been hung out to dry, so no wonder he didn't think it was a good idea.

Posted by steve duncan, Feb 13 2006, 8:25AM - Link

Bush is not bound by or subject to any laws, treaties or agreements.

Posted by Nell, Feb 13 2006, 1:16PM - Link

Krojac, thank you very much for answering my question.

Posted by Enrique Manchego, Feb 14 2006, 4:17PM - Link

Paint a plane to look like something it isn't and then use that to achieve a political/ military goal. Hmm. Maybe we could paint a coupla' planes to look like american airlines planes, crash them into the world trade center and then we could do what ever we want in the name of fighting terrrorism!

Oh wait. We already did!

Posted by Enrique Manchego, Feb 14 2006, 4:19PM - Link

Paint a plane to look like something it isn't and then use that to achieve a political/ military goal. Hmm. Maybe we could paint a coupla' planes to look like american airlines planes, crash them into the world trade center and then we could do what ever we want in the name of fighting terrrorism!

Oh wait. We already did!

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