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Polls in Israel Show. . .

Share / Recommend - Comment - Print - Tuesday, Mar 28 2006, 2:27PM

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Amir Peretz actually looks like one of the big winners -- clearly surpassing expectations -- if exit polls hold steady with vote count.

Avigdor Lieberman of the Russian-immigrant supported Yisrael Beitanu party -- a hard-right party -- is also a big winner.

Netanyahu is the largest loser of the day -- and the Likud are apparently in crisis mode.

Here is an update on poll results (120 seats total):

Kadima 28 (in 2003 -- 0) Center-Left
Labor 20 (in 2003 -- 19) Center-Left

Shas 13 (in 2003 -- 11) (Orthodox, not part of National Right)

Yisrael Beitenu 12 (in 2003 -- ?) Right

Likud 11 (in 2003 -- 38) Right

NU-NRP 9 (in 2003 -- 13) Right

UTJ 6 (in 2003 -- 5) (Orthodox, not part of National Right)

Meretz 4 (in 2003 -- 6) Center-Left

Pensioners 7 (in 2003 -- ?) Center-Left

Arab 10 (in 2003 -- 2) Center-Left

This gives the Center-Left a potential range of seats between 69, and the right 32, with the ultra orthodox (who are not part of the national right) at 19.

Shas, as part of the ultra orthodox camp, has already been rumored to be a likely coalition partner to Kadima and Labor, which would take two-thirds of the orthodox seats at 19 and put those in a center-left coalition as well.

I am breaking my earlier vow not to run numbers publicly until official results are announced.

I have listed the 2003 party strength numbers that I could quickly find.

I am doing so with trepidation, but these numbers were just sent to me from a seasoned Israeli political insider.

All in all, this is the sort of result that portends many positive possibilities.

-- Steve Clemons

« Previous Article - Signs of "Low Anxiety": Israelis Not Turning Out to Vote
» Next Article - Olmert Calls on Abbas for Negotiations

Reader Comments (12) - post a comment

Posted by bubba, Mar 28 2006, 3:33PM - Link

Steve, thank you for this, even though you broke your vow. I hope it holds.

Posted by Thugmeister Bombadillo, Mar 28 2006, 3:35PM - Link

Additional polling results from Israel-
Rachel Corrie- still DOA
Caterpiller Corp.- 1,374 dead and still counting
Hope- not a chance
Misery- yup, and more to come
Apartheid Wall- climbing higher and higher
Concentration Camps- the entire West Bank and Jerusalem
Benji Netanyahu- scary and more scary tomorrow

Posted by bubba, Mar 28 2006, 3:40PM - Link

Steve, for those of us who do not know much about the different parties, could you amend your post to identify each party as "left", "center", "right" or the other shades of such identities?

Posted by Steve Clemons, Mar 28 2006, 5:12PM - Link

Bubba...thanks, just added those designations to my update.

thanks, steve clemons

Posted by Basharov, Mar 28 2006, 5:21PM - Link

How does a party founded by Ariel Sharon (who's still semi-alive, and still an inspiration to the Kadima-ites) get designated as "center-left"?

Posted by Stolen Speech, Mar 28 2006, 5:24PM - Link

Meretz is Left. Kadima is centrist. Thugmeister Bombadillo is near-delusionally one-sided.

Posted by GQ, Mar 28 2006, 6:00PM - Link

I won't hold my breath. In '04 I remember all the exit polls and communications with journalists indicated Kerry would win big. Well, that didn't turn out so well because all of the right-wingers voted later in the day.

Supposing this holds, though, what do you anticipate the next move(s) being and what should Condi be doing? Besides trying to put a muzzle Bolton.

Posted by Dan Kervick, Mar 28 2006, 6:03PM - Link

I think Steve must have made a mistake in his annotations. Kadima is a center-right party.

Posted by Dons Blog, Mar 28 2006, 6:30PM - Link

From exit polls it sounded like Netanyahu was getting stomped, perhaps enough to end his political career.

That would indeed be good news.

Posted by Steve Clemons, Mar 28 2006, 8:09PM - Link

Dan & Others: In the Israeli press, Kadima is now considered Center, Labor left, etc....so when I posted Center-Left, I meant those parties either considered in the Center or on the Left because of the presumed coalition that direction. Sorry I did not make that more clear. But Dan is right, Kadima is a Center party, some might even consider it a Center-Right party....but for calculations of relative weights in party partnerships, I am looking at Center-Left weight vs. weight on the clear right.

Thanks,

Steve Clemons

Posted by MarkW, Mar 29 2006, 3:50AM - Link

I'm with Dan Kervick regarding Kadima's "centre-left" designation.

Any party that is prepared to continue annexing Palestinian lands with the barrier and is openly flouting the so-called "road map" by expanding West Bank and East Jerusalem settlements in violation of many international laws and UN resolutions should be labelled an extremist party.

If the boot was on the other foot, I can imagine the howls of protest.

A peaceful future for all is predicated on returning to internationally recognised borders with mutual recognition.

Hamas must drop its outrageous policy but so must Israel.

Posted by Thugmeister Bombadillo, Mar 29 2006, 7:46AM - Link

"Near-delusionally one sided?" Oh ouch...ouch, ouch! Well, I can certainly take a look at that. I will too, just as soon as the Lithium kicks in! Peace Stolen Speech and kiss, kiss!