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Wheels Within Wheels: Israel Raid on Jericho Jail Probably an Election Ploy
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Ehud Olmert, acting Prime Minister of Israel and the head of the new Ariel Sharon-created Kadima party, just scored big in Israel with the mostly bloodless seizure in Jericho of six Palestinian prisoners who were allegedly involved in the murder of an Israeli cabinet minister in 2001.
Many Palestinian have been up in arms, furious with an incursion into their territory, after British and American monitors of this prison and inmates announced that they had departed the site this morning.
Despite the gloss of drama, most people I'm talking to in political circles think that this deal was rigged behind the scenes between Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
According to some, Abbas indicated through back channels that efforts would be made to release the prisoners -- and knowing that this would be unacceptable to both Israel and other international observers -- Abbas probably laid the groundwork for Israel to come and extract prisoners with the appearance of semi-coercion.
Abbas wins because he is rid of problematic prisoners whose release would alienate Americans, Europeans, and other observers. Olmert wins because this appeared to be a bold and decisive raid, with little bloodshed, and which produced results that most in Israel feel is just regarding these alleged murderers of Israel's Minister of Tourism.
While popular tensions have been aggravated, most think that in the end this high tension drama that ran nearly all day was a product of implicit coordination between the Palestinians and Israelis.
So counterintuitively, this episode today may be part of a broader range of future "deal-making" and may have been an important confidence-building-measure regarding future negotiations.
Stay tuned -- but the word in circles I'm in tonight with sources linking to Palestinian Authority officials and Israeli political and government officials is that this episode may be a net plus to the Israel-Palestine situation, rather than the negative that many of the press are treating it as.
More later.
-- Steve Clemons
Update: The Israeli incursion into Jericho has led to three deaths -- one guard, one prisoner, and one other Palestinian -- so the affair was less bloodless than originally reported.
While some around Abbas are still furious with the incursion, there are key players in Israel who think that beneath this drama, there was an implicit deal struck. As of last night, Kadima's electoral mandate surged from 35-36 seats in Parliament to a projected 42 seats if the election were held today. And Abbas is rid of a brewing prisoner issue that would have served only to further destabilize matters while Hamas is assembling a government.
-- Steve Clemons
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Spin that dreidel.
Israel is provoking Palestinian militants to violence so they can kill them for it. So and so is now planning a revenge attack; he must be killed; and on and on right down the list.
Sharon went to Temple Mount.
Olmert invades Jericho.
Final Solution continues on schedule!
Forgive us our trespasses as we forgive those who trespass against us and lead us not into temptation but deliver us from evil.
If there were only all Christians in this world ....
Steve, that's a fascinating nugget. But if such a deal comes to light, does Abbas have any future in Palestinian politics? He would have bargained away Palestiniain sovereignty, at least temporarily.
I don't have an alternative explanation, since it was Abbas making noises about releasing the prisoners that started the whole crisis.
I'm sure non-Palestinians and non-Isrealis will find some way to screw up any hopes of cooperation.
Hey, weren't the Palestinians the ones who were CHEERING in the streets with JOY when the terrorists knocked down the World Trade Center and killed 3,000 people on 9-11. Why should we give a hoot about them?
They and the Arabs have spent 30 years attacking Israel and everytime they do, they lose MORE land.
My foreign policy for Palestine is this: screw you.
the assassinated minister, Rehavam Zeevi, advocated the expulsion of all Palestinians from the West Bank. Israel has previously claimed to have the right to engage in extra-judicial executions of Palestinian officials hostile to its existence. Well,what's good for the goose.....
I know ... I know ...
Abbas gave up these freedom fighters because he wants Hamas to go ballistic and get wiped out by Israel so he and Fatah can get back in full powah!!
That's it! I figured it all out!
What drama! I'm gonna watch it all on TV, cosy like.
Three Palestinians killed in the raid, but don't worry, its mostly bloodless. Palestinians don't have blood you know. The little blood there was came from an Israeli that cut his finger. Anyway, Rehavam Zeevi life was worth way more than three Palestinians, and, since they only killed three, the Israelis showed that they really have peaceful intentions. Maybe Omert should get the Nobel Peace Prize for this?
And vee vonder vhy Iran vants dah bomb?
Er zol kakn mit blit un mit ayter.
The "assassinated" minister was "targeted" by the Palestinians, just as the Israelis license themselves to assassinate (in far greater numbers) the Palestinians. The minister was a noted far-right supremacist and advocate of ethnic cleansing and terrorism. Double standards?
Let's take out apartheid Israel's nuclear weapons.
The poll showing Kadima jumping from 35-36 seats to 42 was taken before the Jericho prison siege.
Here is Bradley Burston in Haaretz:
"Perhaps significantly, a Channel one television poll released Tuesday and taken before the siege, showed Kadima buoyed by five seats over the week before, to 42 seats in the 120-seat house. Labor and the Likud marched in place, at 16 and 15 seats respectively. "
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=694498&contrassID=2
I love the honesty of Robert Morrow's comments. He doesn't even attempt to be a human being.
Memo to self: God, please tell me he's not a fellow Roman Catholic. We've been embarrassed enough.
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